Brick, New Jersey 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

907
FXUS61 KPHI 042336
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
736 PM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure will remain anchored offshore through
early Thursday. A cold front will approach the area later on
Thursday and Friday, before tracking across the Mid-Atlantic
region on Saturday. High pressure will briefly build in later on
Sunday into Monday. A warm front will move through the region
on Tuesday. Another cold front will then track through the
forecast area on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Uneventful weather during the near term with high pressure well
offshore and subsidence within the local region. The nearest
disturbance is a cold front back across the upper Great Lakes,
however a weak coastal system is also taking shape along the
Carolina coast. The front will creep slowly east tonight and
Thursday, and the coastal system slowly north along the coast
into Thursday as well. Fair weather is expected tonight and all
of Thursday. One minor exception, a slight chance of a shower
across the Southern Poconos very late Thursday afternoon.
Unlike the past couple days, high cloud cover from the
approaching systems will spread into the area late tonight and
especially by Thursday afternoon. Considerable cirrus coverage
can be anticipated by Thursday afternoon and evening as a
result.

Low temps tonight will be in the low 60s, so right around to
slightly above normal. Highs Thursday will be well above normal
with mid/upper 80s across most spots. Some stations within the
area, especially from the Philly metro and north/west, could
experience their first 90 degree day of the year. The increasing
high clouds will be a limiting factor on this though, which
should be thickest toward the south across the coastal plain.
Thus, places in northern NJ and eastern PA could end up a few
degrees warmer than the typical warmer areas of the Philly
metro, southern NJ, and Delmarva. Cooler at the shore with upper
60s/low 70s expected. The humidity will be more noticeable
Thursday with dewpoints rising into the mid to upper 60s, though
some mixing out may occur later in the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
With high pressure shifting well out to sea on Thursday night,
two low pressure systems will be allowed to approach the region.
One from the west. The other from the south. The cold front
associated with the system approaching from the west does look
to get close enough Thursday night that we could see some
isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm (20% or less),
mainly across northeast PA and northwest NJ, before the front
stalls just to the north and west of the region.

The cold front will inch closer on Friday. Its progress still
looks to be slow with little upper-level support and the
continued presence of the coastal surface low just south of the
region. Most forecast models have the coastal low moving out to
sea Friday night in the waking of the departing high. With the
cold front coming in from the west and being a bit closer, we`re
expecting more showers to track into the forecast area,
possibly down to the 95 on Friday afternoon and night. PWAT
values will start creeping up across the region too, topping out
between 1.25-1.75 inches. As a result, there will be potential
for a heavy shower or downpour. Across the Delmarva and maybe
even Cape May county, we can`t rule out a stray shower as the
southern coastal low makes it`s way offshore.

By Saturday, with an upper level trough beginning to deepen to
our west and the coastal low moving further offshore, the cold
front will finally have the support to begin to move across the
area, and lead to increasing chances of precipitation. There is
some instability forecast with CAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg, and
PW values increase to 1.5-2.0 inches. So there will be the
potential for thunderstorms and brief heavy downpours. Mid-level
winds are forecast to be fairly weak, 40-50 knots or less, so
shear is not expected to be overly strong. However, there could
be a few isolated strong storms. Our zones north and west are
highlighted in the ERO (Marginal).

High temperatures on Friday will mainly top out in the mid 70s
to mid 80s. With it being unsettled on Saturday as the cold
front moves through, highs will run in the upper 60s to upper
70s. Delmarva could still see lower 80s. Behind the cold front
on Sunday, our temperatures will be similar to Saturday,
although we`ll see more sun. Lows will be in the upper 50s and
60s all three nights.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The front is forecast to stall to our south on Sunday as high
pressure builds to our north, possibly leading to dry conditions
later Sunday into early Monday. Later Monday and into Tuesday,
said front will push north as a warm front. Yesterday, it looked
like the front would remain to our south. Today, it looks like
it will track completely through the region. After the warm
front tracks north, a cold front is forecast to then push
through on Wednesday.

As a result of the warm and cold fronts, showers and
thunderstorms could pop all three days.

Temperatures throughout the period look to be within a few
degrees of normal for early June. Highs will be in the 70s to
lower 80s and lows will mainly be in the upper 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR with increasing cirrus late. South to southwest
winds 5-10 kts early, becoming 5 kts or less by 06Z. High
confidence.

Thursday...VFR expected. BKN to OVC cirrus by afternoon. Light
winds becoming south to southwest around 10 knots by 18Z. High
confidence.

Outlook...

Thursday night...Mainly VFR conditions expected. There`s a
small chance (10-20%) a shower or thunderstorm gets into KABE or
KRDG.

Friday-Saturday...There`s a 30 to 60% chance of showers and
thunderstorms on Friday and 50 to 80% on Saturday. Sub-VFR
conditions can be expected in the showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR conditions expected.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure remains well offshore tonight and Thursday. A
general South to Southwest flow will continue through the
period. Fair weather is expected. Seas will be mostly 2 to 3 ft
tonight and Thursday on the ocean and 1 to 2 ft for Delaware
Bay.

Outlook...

Thursday night and Friday...Sub-SCA conditions expected.
However, winds will gust to around 15-20 knots at times and seas
will increase to 3-4 feet.

Friday night and Saturday...Small Craft Advisory conditions
possible. Shower and storms will be possible Saturday, which may
lead to locally higher winds and waves. Seas build to 3-5 feet.

Sunday and Monday...Sub-SCA conditions expected.

Rip Currents...

There will continue to be a LOW risk of rip currents through
Friday. For Thursday, expect south to southwest winds around
10-15 mph and breaking waves around 1-2 feet with a period of
7-8 seconds. For Friday, similar conditions can be expected as
south to southeast winds will be around 5-10 mph with breaking
waves around 1-2 feet.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kruzdlo
NEAR TERM...OHara/Staarmann
SHORT TERM...Kruzdlo
LONG TERM...Kruzdlo
AVIATION...Kruzdlo/OHara/Staarmann
MARINE...Guzzo/Kruzdlo/OHara